Planning for more than a wing and a prayer


It is said that, when loosely categorized, there are but seven plots in the world, which could be broken down into 100 or so sub plots.  "News stories" of late might indicate we are obsessed with but one.  "Rags-to-riches" and the much more lucrative variation (from the standpoint of tabloids), the "rags-to-riches-to-rags" theme.

Media coverage of sports figures and celebrities has succeeded in exploiting this theme.  There appears to be an endless spectator market for celebrity carnage.  It starts with first feeding the general population's need for hope. Then it transitions to tapping the more pernicious pangs of envy, envy of the very thing once loved.  Think of Susan Boyle, and most recently, Tiger Woods.

In industry-specific magazines, there is often a similar approach to business coverage. Companies are well loved at their beginnings as the scrappy start ups who are making it big.  In time, however, as they continue to succeed, their images change. The very term "big" shifts from one of admiration to one depicting everything that is believed to be wrong with being large (e.g., bureaucracy, inability to listen, believing one's own press, being out of touch with the customers).  Think of depictions of Microsoft, Google, and Boeing over the years.

Today, Boeing's Dreamliner flew for the first time.  (A beauty to be sure, reflected in classic wet Seattle runways.)  The past few years' press coverage has dwelt on problems at Boeing, and the many delays associated with the Dreamliner.  Now, we are told that this plane could change everything.  Here is yet another rendition of the rags-riches theme: the rags-to-riches-to-rags-to-redemption variation.  A number of commentators asked if this first flight would be big enough to overcome the negatives associated with the Boeing image of the past couple of years.  It does feel as if we might witness the industrial version of Cinderella Man.

In a story, of course, the author chooses the plot, the starting point, the ending, and the duration of the story. The story's conclusion has been set before we even begin it.

An organization or company obviously wishes to write its own story.  A good plan to drive towards a desired conclusion (vision) is the best one can do.  If done successfully the story never ends. The plan is always recreated and extended, always envisioning the unknown, the future.  A good strategy does not just deal with today's problems or options.   It anticipates those of the future.

Anticipation can be reached through trends, and more powerfully through pure imagination, pure speculation.  Assumptions about the future should be clearly documented.  Confidence levels in the assumptions need to be indicated. Their relative importance to conducting one's business successfully ascertained. Any effect if one were to be wrong in the assumption should be anticipated.  The combination of confidence levels, importance and downside effects provides a means to create cushions for critical future actions.

Although the public may devour a good rags-to-riches-to-rags story, the question is whether a company can survive being the protagonist of such a story.  Good planning helps a company from becoming tabloid or industry-media fodder, avoiding heavy dependence on one item, one product, or one action to make a comeback.  One cannot always have a successful Dreamliner first flight in one's pocket.