Decidedly

Musings on decisions and factors that drive them.

Disfiguring a Queen

Many of us love large ocean liners. United Arab Emirates' real estate developer Nakheel purchased the venerable and long-serving Queen Elizabeth 2 from Cunard Line with the intention of creating a "stationary hotel" in Dubai. The original Queen Mary was converted in such a manner and now rests in Long Beach, California.

For those wishing to experience some of the luxuries of a time gone by, this type of hotel with a nautical flavor definitely appeals. One can feel a part of the many who journeyed across oceans in this particular type of splendor. She looks like a ship, floats like a ship and really is a ship.

So why buy a ship, a true maritime icon, if one plans to lop off a critical piece of its distinctive appearance, (in this case, her majestic red funnel) and replace that with a "glass penthouse?" Other than for one nightly occupant to boast to his friends and colleagues that his personal wealth enables him to stay in "the most exclusive hotel room in Dubai," this dismembering move certainly will not attract other potential visitors to the ship. And for that "lucky" person who stays in a part of the ship that was never intended to be any aspect of its accommodation, just what is the point?
It is clear that criteria of attraction to this formerly great ship becoming a hotel simply have not been examined from the majority of potential customers' points of view:

  • Seeing and experiencing the ship just as she was in her glory.
  • "Cruising" with none of the dangers encountered at sea.
  • Being where so many celebrities and world-famous people have enjoyed themselves.
  • Being part of the thousands who walked the same companionways, sat in the same lounges, and dined in the same restaurants.
  • Having an experience that cannot be equated to anything a land hotel can offer.

Of course, these criteria will be in addition to experiencing the numerous luxuries found in land-based hotels.

The key comes in determining which are more important in the context of attraction to a maritime icon. It is perhaps the lack of knowledge of relative merit of these types of criteria from a customer viewpoint that has led to the proposed sad disfigurement of this particularly beautiful ship.
Comments

Health Care Reform: Political Positioning over Principles

Are our representatives really listening?

It seems we are not going to see the end of this health care debate for a long, long, time. Most offensive is that the politics of the issues have become more visible, and seemingly more important, than the principles that should, in fact, be guiding the reform.

The New York Times hits the nail on the head when it states "In a day of desultory debate..." Desultory. Yes, the very heart of the problem. Without plan or purpose.  Except, of course, political gain for one side or the other. Good decisions cannot be reached without clear, agreed upon, purpose.

Health care reform. The guiding criteria that our elected officials should be using to frame such reform still remain unstated or they lack affirmation. What is the definition of health care -- not as an industry that insures, but as a service to this nation's citizens?  Is health care a right of these citizens? Should it be available to all, or only to some?

Instead of framing this reform in terms of these key elements, the "issue" of health care reform is being framed in terms of personal political gain: Make a name for oneself.  Win for one's party. Keep "the other guys" from making progress.  Manipulate and "pitch" to constituencies to ensure an election "win" in the future.  Leverage the "issue du jour" in one's own favor.


Is this "debate" for the good of the people?  No.  We can be but assured that it is for political gain.

Political primping and positioning are fomenting a feeling of resentment in the popular base, which our representatives should by now realize is the constituency most widely and directly affected.  This base is neither being represented nor heard by those who are "debating." Contacting elected representatives invariably results in electronic platitudes and form letters stating unwavering pre-set positions, which in turn indicate that opinions and comments are basically unheard.

Statements continue to be made about "affordability" and, in the same breath, those remarks are linked to others such as "no major increase in premiums will be made for the overwhelming majority of Americans who already have insurance."

Have our representatives completely swept under the rug the uninsured Americans, along with the reason for their being uninsured -- premiums that are, and have been, too high, i.e. beyond the range of "affordability?"

It is imperative that our representatives step out of their own shoes.  Most Americans do not have the ability to pay the same premiums or deductibles that these representatives encounter in their lives.  The insular world of Representatives and Senators, with salaries of $174,000 per year (with an annual cost of living increase) cannot be the basis of understanding the angst of someone with a minimum wage job earning $7.25/hour ($15,000 per year), who hears of "continued levels" of existing already out-of-range premiums or of $5,000/year deductibles.  These remarks reveal that the lawmakers are completely out-of-touch with reality.

For a representative, it must be considerably easier, if not "more important," to "listen" to those entities who make big contributions to one's campaign. However, individuals in this society, whether they make millions or make peanuts, should probably take heart in knowing that corporations may "vote" only with their money.  The hope here is that ballots on election day, cast by individuals, will remain the only ones that can return an elected official to their seat.
Comments

Black, Black Friday

The business of making a nothing day into something "special"

Today is "Black Friday."  Once an ordinary day, business decided it was "an opportunity." It was bestowed with a special name, and a good deal of hype.  ("Cyber Monday" is another day recently given a business makeover.) "Black Friday"-- the moniker alone drives me crazy.  "Black" is not an adjective that conjures up joy or happiness.  The are but few applications, outside the world of accounting, when "black" is considered "good." I'm old enough to remember when the term "Black Friday" meant a financial disaster on the stock market. Yet, the implication is that businesses are going to financially move into the black -- reportedly by selling "cheap goods cheaply."   It is so blatantly commercial.  It truly is "black" in my mind.  The worst sort of "black."

Also disturbing is that this trumped up shopping frenzy is becoming even bigger than the holiday of Thanksgiving, which itself used to be centered on "thanks giving," and was not synonymous with a day to gorge oneself.  The focus on two days of excessive consumption speaks volumes.  And our nation, according to most news stories and polls, will apparently be in peril if we don't consume enough!! (We'll be hearing how "well" the country is on the news tonight when the "numbers are in.")

Perhaps the slowdown in the economy is giving us a chance to take stock of what we really value. All the stuff in the world is not going to bring happiness.

If each of us were to list the attributes of a perfect holiday, how many of us would list the need to feel obligated to spend money?  Must we be timed as to when we wish to be generous?  as to when we wish to say we love someone or are thinking of them? ("Tis the season!" --  It seems more a command to "Buy now!")

In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, we come to know the "un-birthday."  There is something extraordinarily special when one receives a gift that comes out of the blue, that has not been purchased due to some either overt or subliminal sense of obligation.  How delightful is the gift that has been purchased or created and given free from commercial pressures!

In the Looking Glass world everything is "backwards."  In reality, I think this economic slowdown is showing us that things are backwards on this side of the mirror.

Comments

Kraft-ing Sweet Dreams from the 1800s

What could bar success?

In the news is the potential acquisition of Cadbury, England's famous chocolatier, by Kraft (with possible alternative offers by Hershey and Italy's Ferrero).  This acquisition provides a classic example of the need to examine what is at stake beyond merely the production of a product and how it is marketed.

There is no question that the name Cadbury, and the dreams that started at Bournville in the mid 1800s, resonate with more people than those who are just lovers of chocolate.  The Cadbury philosophy differentiated a business and was integral to its product's becoming iconic.

It is not unusual during such a purchase that focus turns to branding and the potential fallout of clashing cultures.  Most people foretold that when Schweppes entered the Cadbury picture in the late 1960s, the business would be more focused on pure business than the dreams of its founder.  Yet the components that are behind the iconic status of the Cadbury brand cannot be completely ignored. It is more than the taste of chocolate that is behind that name.

At the time any acquisition decision is made, multiple factors are at play. All participants need to understand the relative importance that image has alongside any other factors in the judgment.

A corporate suitor may be appealing for a number of differing reasons:

  • Brings financial strength
  • Brings management expertise
  • Brings a cache in terms of image
  • Opens up new market segments
  • Has a culture supportive of the original founder's purpose

Those statements are all from the perspective of the party being bought. The potential acquiring entity might have similar, additional and/or differing desires that it hopes to gain by an acquisition.  They should also be elicited and weighted.

There are also concerns that each party will have about a merger or acquisition, and those concerns need to be uncovered and weighted, in terms of potential harm were they to occur, and in terms of probability of occurrence.

It is then, that the various potential corporate combinations can best be viewed.  Understanding each party's relative weighting of their own desires and concerns, along with each merged entity's collective ranking against both, would lead to the most robust final decision as to which is the "best" combination.

This exercise would benefit not only the party being acquired.  Any party doing an acquisition, who may also have other targeted acquisitions, would have a much more robust roster of potential purchases.  That buyer would also clearly know, and be able to plan for, the strengths and weaknesses of any particular acquisition.  More importantly, they would know that actions were being properly focused, based on relative importance.
Comments

Waiting for change at the banks

Or will the banks be "ever thus?"

In 1905, George Santayana gave us the aphorism that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Couple that with his remark that "To knock a thing down, especially if it is cocked at an arrogant angle, is a deep delight of the blood," and we have a pretty fair picture of the banking industry and the general public's response to the news about it.

Once again, we are confronted with reports about bankers and their bonuses, underscored with the old rationalization by that industry: "the need to prevent talent flight."  Matt Frei wonders if America is now becoming a nation less of "aspiration" and more of "resentment."

It is not surprising that attempts abound to re-ignite the old "fears" re government action to curb executive bonuses.  These actions are termed "meddling" in the "business of business," or worse representing the encroachment of "socialism."  Nor is it surprising that these statements are typically made by those in business.

Ordinary people are merely tiring of being condemned to witness the repetition of questionable practices. We are tired of arrogance. We are tired of being played for fools, and of funding those who have caused our current misery and who seem adroit in manipulating the system.

It is wise to remember that when one is tired, decisions made are not always the best.  We've heard the maxim to "sleep on it" before making a big decision. Not always a physical sleep, this can also mean simply stepping back from an issue to give it a rest. However, if each morning, the wounds are cut afresh as one picks up a newspaper, there is no respite from the indignation of being violated again and again.  For many people the mental weariness and the sense of powerlessness to effect positive changes grows. One's thought processes in such a state become less rational. Babies are likely to be thrown out with bath water.

The elected or appointed who assumed positions of power need to heed this rising anger.  "Resentment" is not quite the right term.  We are beyond bitter indignation.  We are feeling the hostility of raw anger, rooted in powerlessness and evidenced by lack of change.  On February 11, 2009 and August 5, 2009 I hoped that the banking industry might "cross off the list of reasons for bonuses" this constant reference to "preventing talent flight." The expression just does not sit well with those who can view only the incompetence that led to the current economic crisis in the world.  And the only flight we see is one from responsibility.  I now implore...can we just simply kill use of the expression altogether?
Comments (1)

Health Care Reform Options Weighed

Viewpoints matter

Earlier this month (Oct. 9, 2009) I ranked the attributes of an "ideal" health care system that I, as a potential user of the system, would desire. The New York Times recently published the "features" of the differing proposals in committees and houses of Congress. I decided to weigh how well each proposal met my criteria.  (The chart to the right shows the outcome. Any not crossing the midline fall short of at least one very important attribute I weighted earlier.)  Additionally, as options, I included the status quo, as well as the UK and the Canadian systems from what little I know about them.

Congress' proposals were difficult to rank, because descriptions were primarily focused on the "rules of participation" and "penalties for non-participation." These descriptors were insufficient to understand the "offerings" given to user/patients of a system of health care, but were more about administration.  A potential user/patient is less concerned about the cost to the government or the effect on businesses (small or large).  While viable concerns of some constituencies, they are not reflective of the user/patient constituency.

For most individuals, a key area of concern is "affordability." But "affordability" remains nebulous in the descriptions:

  • "Premiums will not be allowed to be raised because of pre-existing conditions." A noble statement, but one that does not address the fact that premiums may be too high in the first place.
  • "Shopping at an exchange." If all prices at the exchange are too high, then "affordability" remains an issue for many.  As an example, has anyone "shopped around" for better interest rates at a bank recently? Does it seem as if one is dealing with a banking cartel?  In that light, do we think that there will be sufficient incentive for any insurance company to lower its rates if it can observe that its competition is profiting more?
  • A "cap" of $5,000 per individual has been bandied about. Is this reasonable, given that the federal minimum wage ($7.25/hour) would only provide an individual with approximately $13,700/year after taxes?  How is that individual to survive on the remaining amount, if $5,000 is taken from it to cover health care costs?  Is this realistic? Even a tax credit for the full $5,000 would only put $63/month back in the pockets of these individuals.  What will that buy them?  Paying the $750 penalty that is suggested, would provide them with $1,081/month to deal with the immediate realities of life.  Would this not seem the more pragmatic action to take?

That said, is the Congress (having "offered" such a deal to these individuals that they then "refuse") going to return to their voter base with a clear conscience saying they created a "reformed" system?  That this was the best they could do?

Assessing the same proposals from the point of view of the insurance industry, is a more rosy picture:

  • Under all proposed systems, the industry will have a captive market. Subscribing to insurance will be mandatory. 
  • The government will police on the industry's behalf, through penalties. 
  • There is no mention of regulations for or mandated lowering of pricing of premiums, or co-pays.
  • There are no guarantees re personal choice of doctors.
  • There are no regulations about qualifications for doctors participating in plans.
  • There is a wide array of "levels" of care being spoken about. 
  • There no longer is talk of the "right" to health care. Instead this has been replaced with "acceptable numbers" for the number of people uninsured. "Insured" can actually be insurance that plays out to be as one congressman deemed it, "pseudo-insurance." But, no one is mandating regulations to prevent this type of fraud. 
  • The complexity itself in the descriptions of plans, in fact, adds to the industry's ability to manipulate for their profit. 

More is to be gained than lost from the insurance industry point of view.

Beyond these questions, going through the assessment exercise reveals some important aspects of this decision. The White House's "idea" for health care as initially assessed, due to our lack of knowledge as to specifics, is better than the actual proposals at hand. This is not unusual.  Concepts that are loosely defined typically are interpreted more generously.  It is always advisable to return to an assessment as details are uncovered about a project.  When "guidelines" evolve into specifics, we often see the more realistic ranking of a project.

Additionally, in the course of the judgment process, one may realize that there are criteria for judgment specific to each constituency.  The options being judged may be held in common, but the factors that define each voice's idea of "goodness" differ.  It is always wise to revisit the criteria. Are the differing constituencies able to agree upon one set of criteria for judgment before a "product" is designed, or would it be better to elicit and weigh criteria that are specific to each constituency, and then bring them together in the final assessment?

If there are multiple constituencies involved in determining "what matters," the degree of influence of each (their voice's weighting) must also be factored in to the assessment.

In health care reform, we are dealing with multiple constituencies, with differing viewpoints: The citizen, as potential patient/user.  The citizen as taxpayer.  Big corporations.  Small businesses.  The private insurance industry.  The government as a representative of the people.  To get on the same page, we may need to start separately.  But instead of trying to convince the other constituencies of our own values as factors for their judgment, we need to integrate all viewpoints.  This does not mean homogenization of viewpoints, but it does mean a a type of "triangulation" in the judgment of options.  This is what is currently missing, and why pot shots can be so easily made about each proposal, and why one viewpoint, one that is an expert in getting heard but is not necessarily representing what is best, is beginning to dominate.
Comments (1)

No liars, please...!

A matter of unexpressed desires

A real estate agent I know often quotes a motivational speaker she heard at a real estate conference: "All buyers lie." This saying is apparently embraced by real estate agents to explain why clients "make lists of things they want (e.g., features of houses: "x" number of bedrooms, "y" number of baths, fireplace, swimming pool, game room, home theater, etc.)" and then, when they actually decide to buy a particular house, the final choice doesn't have many of the things they listed as "important."

The buyer behavior is not surprising to me.  It does make me flinch to have it deemed "lying." It isn't at all.  The client has been asked for a list of things to describe deeper desires, but even they don't know that.  And, it is the deeper meaning of the features they might list that forms the basis for their decision or judgment. A buyer is looking for intangibles as represented by features.


In all practicality, a real estate agent needs a definitive starting point to find housing options to show to a client: a ball-park size in terms of bedrooms and baths, and perhaps some other features.  After that, the relative importance to the buyer of the intangible factors will be the real drivers of their final decision.

A list of these underlying intangibles emerge from questions such as: "If you had the features you describe, how would they make you feel when you are in that 'ideal' home?  How do each of the features you list, as you envision them in your head, make you feel? Describe the 'tones' or 'feelings' of that 'ideal' home."  [More critical than being driven by a list of features is understanding that other, completely unthought of, features might be able to satisfy these underlying desires.]

Examples of types of intangible statements are listed below:
  • Feels cozy and warm.
  • Gives a feeling of being connected with nature.
  • Is peaceful.
  • Is distinctive.
  • Imparts prestige/importance.
  • Showcases our personalities. (specifically, e.g. arty, intellectual, powerful, efficient, orderly, extroverted, introverted, fun-loving, etc.)
  • Gives our children a cultural advantage.
  • Gives our children an educational advantage.
  • Feels luxurious.
  • Provides a welcoming atmosphere.
  • Provides privacy for all inhabitants.
  • Is affordable without strain on our current/expected financial means.
  • A place where we could stay for years. (e.g. this would cover a variety of more specific statements: "has space for growing family, or "could accommodate aging needs")
  • Will provide us with financial stability/security. 
A buyer can weigh their relative importance, resulting in a "profile" of a "great home." All houses (the collection of their tangible features) would be weighed against these intangible attributes.  Every person on the planet tries to juggle multiple variables in their head.  However, when mentally juggling, it becomes more difficult, as more and more housing options or features are added to the mix.

At some point, cumulatively, more of these intangible needs will be met in the buyer's mind, until one housing option outweighs another.  This "build" of the internal assessment against components can be arrived at over time, or it can be done in a flash.

In any case, the buyer didn't lie.  They just described their "needs" by using features as examples of something deeper that they really wanted.  That "something" is a set of intangible, but completely valid, factors having relative importance.  It is the cumulative assessment against those factors that can make it seem as though a final decision was arbitrary.  I guarantee you, it was not.  The client has remained absolutely true to his internal set of intangibles and his personal assessment against them.
Comments

Back to the Sixties

Who's whiffing now?
In a BBC article about Obama and his strategy for Afghanistan, Paul Adams reports on a small anti-war protest as "a whiff of the Sixties" with "some way to go."   Unfortunately, the main subject of his article is somewhat lost as he goes on to describe "elegantly coiffured Ms. Pelosi" and her "Senate colleague, the Majority Leader Harry Reid" who "put an avuncular - perhaps even patronizing - arm around her shoulder."


Ironically, the attempt to show sexism as alive and well in Washington was made in the first half of Adam's remark. In the comparison of the two, Pelosi is described in terms of her looks, Reid by his title.

Occasionally we can expect a relapse in perspective from the now-retiring or already-retired generations who needed awakening (yes, in the Sixties) to this type of verbal patronizing of women in the news.  But Adams is young, relatively speaking.  Astonishingly, it is both males and females of his generation that are perpetuating the demeaning of women's ideas and stature through frivolous reporting.

The Sotomayor hearings, as covered in the New York Times, fell victim to this same manner of reporting. Apparently some female reporters think they are still relegated to writing articles for the Style section: Kate Phillips': "Ms. Sotomayor wore a cobalt blue pants suit, a color often worn by Hillary Rodham Clinton." Sheryl Gay Stolberg's: "her flaming red jacket" and "her manicured nails painted a pale pink."

Judgments are decisions.  Decisions need to be made with facts that are relevant. Options, and even people, should be assessed against all facts deemed relevant.  Applying criteria to only some and not to others being judged is always seen as unfair.  It is the definition of "double standard."  It is also true for descriptors that cause judgment.  Not only are the judgments questionable, but the persons putting forth the case for and against are doubted as to their ability to be fair.

These reporters do not remember that this same issue, of having two standards for judgment based on gender, was brought forth during the Sixties. Overcoming this double standard allowed women reporters to move more easily from the Style section to the front page.  Reading this type of reporting...well, it is definitely a whiff of the Sixties, if not the Fifties.
Comments

Health Care: What matters to you?

Not a decision made by one factor alone

Quite a number of political advertisements are appearing on television about health care reform.

One such spot focuses on the dangers of not being able to "choose one's own doctor." I admit, this ability to choose my own doctor is something I would sorely miss. My doctor has known me for over 25 years. I respect her abilities. She knows my health issues and my personal medical philosophy. She knows my behavior towards seeking medical help. When she went on a sabbatical, it was somewhat difficult seeing other doctors. Many made assumptions about me based solely on their experiences with other patients of the same age, class, race, and gender.

Judgment of any new health care system cannot, and should not, be made due to one factor alone. A few components people say they want in a new system (stated in somewhat more positive terms) are listed, randomly, below:

  • The cost of coverage is reasonable. [total cost (premiums, Rx, co-pays, deductibles) cannot exceed 10% of my annual income. Elective, non-medically driven, purely cosmetic surgeries understandably are outside the scope of insured coverage.]
  • The care I receive will be of high quality.
  • I will be able to choose the provider of my care.
  • I will not be denied care that I seek. [provided the care is ethical and legal]
  • I will not be provided care I do not wish.
  • The system cannot be "worked" by those who do not contribute their fair share to it.
  • Coverage will be complete and total. [Rx, preventative: annual physicals, mammograms, etc., all medical services and facilities. Elective, non-medically driven, purely cosmetic surgeries understandably are outside the scope of insured coverage]
  • The coverage will be for my lifetime.
  • My medical records will remain private.
  • I will have access to care in a timely manner. [Appropriate to the seriousness of the problem.]

All are important. But there is a relative importance for each of us. As a quick exercise, I went ahead and determined their relative importance for me. In reviewing the results, as important as "being able to choose my own doctor" was, there were many things more important than it. And it made sense. If I can't afford seeing a doctor, what would it matter if I were able to choose a doctor that I wanted to see, but was unable to actually see? If I could see my doctor, but if needed tests or procedures she ordered were
not covered, where would I be? If I lost my coverage, what would it matter? Seven other factors (almost equally important to each other as indicated by the lengths of the bars on the chart), were more than twice as important to me. This does not mean that "choosing my own doctor" is unimportant to me. It clarifies that the other aspects are extremely important.

Of course, this is just my own personal ranking. It does explain, however, why the approach to health care must comprehensively address more than one issue, and why acceptance or rejection of change cannot be decided by one element alone.
Comments

Retirement options

Dreams vs. Reality

Ah, retirement! The "Golden Years!" The classic picture of the elderly couple strolling together on a beach.

It's a nice image, but, it is a marketing image.

My parents loathed being termed "seniors." My mother, in particular, scoffed at the term "Golden Years." Both terms were clearly euphemisms coined by a younger generation, probably justifying its own situation of overwork, frenetic rushing about, and even despondency about lack of accomplishments. Such terms placate by implying that there will still be time, a better time, later, for desired rest and enjoyment. "Yes, you're too busy now, but wait until your retirement, your 'golden years'..."

The real picture of aging, of retirement, is quite different. Replace the beach with a street. Remove one person. The remaining person is dependent on an automobile to reach food, doctors, prescriptions, daily needs...but has no driver's license. Her fixed income seems to shrink each year, as utilities and taxes continue to increase. Unexpected repairs are needed: appliances break, the roof leaks...

So much for "basic needs." What about "quality" of life: the ability to meet up with friends, to see a film, play or art exhibit, to eat out occasionally, or simply to get to stores or the library?

This person, the "senior," is now classified and "addressed" by industry (yes, there is a "retirement industry" and a "seniors industry"... just google either), government and the media as "a sector" of the population. Seen less as an individual, she becomes viewed as only a part of an abstract "issue." A "growing problem in our society."

Business has created a commercial, and highly profitable, "solution." "Retirement communities" and "assisted living" are now standard "options." Ironically, the inhabitants of these "options" themselves have coined a term for them: "Waiting rooms for God." Costs for these "options" are in the thousands of dollars per month.

How do we face this picture? For our parents? For ourselves? How does one see what are viable options versus marketing dreams? My parents determined what were the aspects of living (when they were retired) that would be most important to them. They included basic needs, as well as things that were more subjective in terms of "quality." They ranked specific options in terms of the weighted criteria.

The answer from this exercise was not what they really wanted to hear, but they felt it to be "correct." After all, it was based on their expressed values, their assessments. Despite knowing "it was right," however, they postponed moving from their home of many years to a new location, one that would better suit my mother should my father die first. When my father did die first, my mother revisited the work they had done together, realizing that without him, some criteria, which had been ranked by them together, were now even more important to her, on her own. She called me to say that she was executing the decision "we should have made years ago."

In making decisions, we can find common ground, but we need to respect individuality. Although marketeers appeal to the masses, criteria are not universal. Each couple, each person, must define and weigh their own needs. Options also will satisfy in differing ways. Importance of criteria and the range of options can change when circumstances change. Revisiting a plan, after any significant change, is essential.

Comments

Nation of Fear

Swimming with Sharks

A number of my friends from Europe and South America have remarked on the culture of the U.S. as being "fear based." From their perspectives, most TV advertisements surrounding the news center on fear of succumbing to disease. The news, itself, seems a compendium of real, or worse, merely potential disasters. We fear terrorism. We fear job loss. We fear disease. We fear snow. Stir the pot of fear, and then it's "News at Eleven." Fear is the great "hook" for attracting "viewing audiences." The great marketing mechanism.

Recently, the New York Times wrote an article on the manipulation of a prevalent fear about Medicare being diminished during health care reform. We've all heard the ignorant shout of "Don't let the government touch my Medicare!" Let us add to the litany of fears, fear of our own government, the hand that feeds us, in this case.

Decisions are clearly influenced when one has been reared in a culture of fear. A few years ago, I took a colleague through use of our software to determine what he sought in a new job. He started by listing everything he did not want in a job. His statements evolved from unpleasant situations that he had experienced in the past in other jobs. For every negative statement he made starting with "Well, I don't want..." I worked with him to rephrase the statement to be more what he would be looking for, and less about what he was worried. So a statement such as "I don't want to be in a dead end job." became "The job will have potential for growth and advancement." "I don't want to wind up giving up all my free time, working weekends, etc." became "The job will respect my personal life, allowing me my own personal time."

Re-phrasing negatives to positives helps. However, this can go only so far. One still is framing a future based on fears about the past.

Steeped in a culture of fear, it is hard NOT to frame one's future based on overcoming or avoiding perceived problems. But doing so is not choosing a destination. It is merely "winding up somewhere," having been pushed into that position by fear.

Focusing on a desired destination can prevent this "backing in" to one's future. No matter how unrealistic positive desires may sound at first, state them. This may seem much harder to do, than to bow before a future not chosen, but which appears inevitable. It may take time to do this.

Life will never be trouble free, of course. But, overcoming troubles can be put in better perspective if one knows where one is headed by choice. It is the difference between swimming with sharks, and swimming through sharks to a better destination. Yes, one could be eaten in either case. But in the former, one will die in a miserable state of fear. In the latter, one dies with hope. The smell of fear can invite being preyed upon. Manipulators count upon it.
Comments

"How big was it, Johnny?"

The discovery of Anglo-Saxon gold treasure in England...it's "big!"

Ed McMahon, during his job as sidekick in the days of the Johnny Carson Tonight Show used to reinforce Johnny's lead in to a joke about the size of something, by asking the question used as a title to this blog post.

When I read about the recent discovery of Anglo-Saxon gold treasure in a field in Staffordshire, England, the description of the find seemed, at first, to be focused on the size of the find, bigger, they said, than the findings at Sutton Hoo in 1939.

Those describing the find went on to compare it in terms of the Lindisfarne Gospels or the Book of Kells. This comparison alludes to qualities beyond "big" as a measure of area, length, volume, or quantity. "Big" can mean the more subjective aspects of importance as described by other characteristics such as degree of preservation, intricacy of workmanship, the revelations regarding behavior of those who possessed the treasure in their time, and insights provided into their way of life. "Big" can mean many things.

In all decisions there are many characteristics at play that determine, cumulatively, what we mean by value. Big, or the other nuances that "big" implies (and other such terms that can connote differing meanings), need to be clarified carefully when they are the basis for determining what we mean by "value."

In addition, during any assessment prior to a final decision, many people need a known point of reference to which to compare any new option. A Sutton Hoo. A Lindesfarne Gospel. A Book of Kells.

It is important to create a framework to be be used in making a decision that allows for nuances and for comparison to something that is known. Decisions will be more robust, richer. And one's decision is not likely to be fodder for a joke.
Comments

F***ing Tennis Anyone?

I just read the articles on Federer being fined for audible obscenity, Williams being fined for her obscenities and outbursts, and countless others grunting on their way to or from tennis stardom.

A few decades ago, I spied a license plate with the number 10SNE1. It took me awhile to "get it," but I did, and I thought "how cute." It was in an era before tennis bracelets, and, to be frank, before tennis was considered a sport for "NE1." The opening up of tennis to other than the upper classes has not been a bad evolution. It has enriched the sport to include a wide array of talents who are more than just competent. I am a believer in sports that are not elitist. But cannot sport elevate more than one's earnings alone?

Gone are the days of watching films or stage plays in which a WASP-ish, ivy-league, white-shorted, cable v-necked, dashing twenty-something asks an ingenue and her entourage about the possibility for a set. Okay. I can live without that contrivance. But, does everything have to be gritty, and vulgar, to be "real?"

I think I gave up on sports when my TV set became filled with various sports that centered less on the aspects of the games themselves, and more on spitting, crotch-grabbing and vulgarity. I missed just hearing the solid "thwack" of a well hit ball without any attendant screeching of the person who had hit it. I loved tennis for its fluidity and the fact that, unlike American football, it had a fairly rapid pace to it. It did not seem bound to infinitesimal measures, nor overblown theatrics.

This brings me around to identifying the types of programming I like to watch. I can list these characteristics, prioritize them, and then weigh the programs offered against them. This exercise led me to acknowledge that most TV offerings were not geared to my viewing pleasure. I would need to create my own entertainment, and not accept the "LOP" ("least objectionable program") or the "most objectional programming" then being broadcast by corporate giants. TVNE1? Don't think so.

Comments

"Bowling" for Banking


Many articles are appearing about banking or financial system reform. Content, however, has been more about individuals, or past mistakes, than on the needed elements of a structure-to-be that might be viable.

In seeking a list of characteristics that would epitomize the ideal financial system, I found a blog entry posted in July on the Banking Law Prof Blog which is a good starting point to illustrate how such a list could drive out selection of effective actions.

With criteria of an ideal system weighted, one could so much more easily assess which are the best actions to take to achieve a "reformed financial system." The following characteristics were extrapolated from that blog.

Drafted in an overarching context of structuring a system to have "resilience" as suggested, we extract the following characteristics:
  • The system must have balance, e.g. so that when one part is stressed, the other parts provide sufficient robustness for survival.
  • The system must be transparent (Problems need to be seen before they grow).
  • The system must be constantly improving. (Allowing for failures in a way that lets them occur without being catastrophic, while still enabling "lessons learned.")
  • The system needs to have capable oversight. (Plans and preparations should be reviewed by those capable of seeing potential flaws, before the plans are implemented.)
  • The system must be flexible, and adaptable to changing circumstances. (Any planned actions should be tested within a framework that provides for robust speculative insights into the future.)
  • The system should be simplified and de-mystified. (Understanding is key to having trust in a system.)
Once the general characteristics (above) have been prioritized, actions could be assessed against them. The blog suggested but a few:
  • Solicit design of the new structure balancing the input of fresh eyes and the wisdom of experience.
  • Design collaborative technologies for sharing communication and information.
  • De-centralize the system.
  • Create back-up systems for rescue, in advance of any need for rescue.

Other actions could be assessed, as they are suggested. Those that most strongly support, cumulatively, the criteria become the "king pins" of the new viable, effective financial system.

Without this analysis, one runs the risk of focusing on one or two criteria which may or may not be instrumental in achieving resilience. To continue the bowling analogy, most bowlers try for the strike, and settle for the spare, not the other way around.
Comments

Life transitions

monster.com, jobspider.com and hotjobs.com are but part of the job hunting solution.

We were asked by a good friend to help them in contemplation of one of life's big decisions. Changing jobs after decades with one company. Such a decision is not just about a job, or about comparing one's current job with an opportunity that suddenly appears.

Embedded in all important life decisions are unique underlying elements that define one's own particular philosophy of life. Qualities or aspects for an individual that make "life good." Without clarity of these elements and their relative importance, one runs the risk of moving from job to job, and of having one's life defined for one, instead of choosing one's own path.

A job can appeal for being a "stepping stone" or because one "needs the money." Such reasons need to be viewed in the overall context of one's desired happiness in life. The argument against such contemplation, especially during tough economic times, is that it is a luxury. One hour for one's happiness? A small luxury indeed. The framework one creates structures the discussion of the particulars of any job. Without it, a job selected may not be part of a chosen "path" to the future. One may indeed be only taking the next step to "wherever one winds up." Big difference.

One hour. Write down what is important in one's life, not just one's job. Determine the relative importance of each statement written. Assess job opportunities in terms of those statements. Which opportunities are most supportive, cumulatively, in helping achieve all your desires? In tough economic times, temptation will be strong to take the job offering the most money. But roads "diverge in the yellow wood," and we know that things "lead on" from choices made. It may not always be an option to retrace one's steps. Better to know the desired destination, and have it frame the choice one makes and the paths one chooses.
Comments

Flavor of actions

The "cash for clunkers" program stimulated the Asian automakers more than our own. Although the nation gave 700,000 people a break on a car purchase, did the program meet the objective of creating American jobs? Was significant progress made towards the objective to eliminate the nation's dependency on foreign oil? Has it helped the U.S. economy get back on track for sustained growth? Did this bit of news surprise anyone?

Actions that are undertaken without assessment in terms of a complete set of weighted objectives, usually have a small positive effect for a few, often for merely the near term only. Rarely do they live up to the expectations of the many.

At this juncture, it would be wise for the Big Three to document and weight the criteria by which automotive customers decided to buy Toyotas over American-made cars. Additionally, these customers should be asked what their criteria will be for their NEXT purchase five years from now. The manufacturers need to align their processes to produce with an eye to satisfying such criteria, as weighted by the customer.

Of course, this should have been done decades ago (the 1980s) when "Japanese manufacturing" was the buzzword rage and American CEOs from all industries were heading to Toyota to personally "drink from the well." The pity has been that the returning manufacturing pilgrims seemed to have learned new buzzwords, and merely "talked the talk." Programs were implemented instead of needed cultural changes in thinking. Each succeeding generation used but a new name for the same good ideas, countering their actual effectiveness by inadvertently causing them to be viewed as "flavors-of-the-month." "Quality," "CQI," "Lean," etc. With "spin" being manufactured, the products themselves fell behind.

With only words changing, did anyone really expect something different?
Comments

Defining "quality" for your life

Health care reform discussion, particularly about "end-of-life" medical care, has put center stage a subject about which many Americans are phobic. Death. I know many otherwise highly intelligent people who do not have wills or trusts (including persons with children). Still others do not even wish to discuss fatal illness when it occurs. This avoidance merely allows others to manipulate one through fear, and worse, make decisions for one.

It appears many people have also forgotten the fiasco over Terry Schiavo. It prompted many, at the time, to draw up an "end-of-life" plan or directive for their own medical care. It seemed, for a moment, that we were getting wiser. Simple forms exist in many states to be completed when one enters an assisted living facility or hospital. At these points it is still somewhat late in the day for such planning. Much wiser to think through the aspects of such a decision before it is thrust upon one.

Many forms for medical directives have a box to check that states "choose quality of life over longevity." The difficulty remains for the individual completing such a form to define clearly for a medical team what "quality" of life is for oneself, reflecting one's own unique perspective. Many aspects unique to each person comprise a personal view of "quality of life."

List the aspects of "quality of life" for you. Depending on one's age, longevity could be one of the criteria. Ascertain the relative importance of those elements . This will then be a clearer framework for assessing types of medical treatments, while one is still in health, or at the time when a medical team needs to follow your instructions.

Those who must carry out your directive will be most grateful. And your desires will be less likely to be interpreted by others with possibly differing value systems.
Comments

Safety in numbers

A 2008 legal settlement gave Google the rights to create a Book Rights Registry, and to digitize works whose rights-holders are unknown (50-70% of books published since 1923). Amazon, Microsoft and Yahoo recently countered by joining the Open Book Alliance led by the Internet Archive . The three companies' objections have largely centered on potential lost profits and market share. The non-profit Internet Archive speaks more about open public access and free availability.

An additional concern exists. Software applications (such as Photoshop) not only have provided us with enormous ease to achieve "perfection," but they have engendered in us an acceptance for alterations. Private, personal and innocuous manipulation.

Alteration, however, has gone public. The love handles of a French President disappear, a magazine changes the swimsuit color of a U.S. President . It still seems innocent enough.

Less innocuously, the Bush adminstration cut the embarrassing "Mission Accomplished" banner from the video of that speech for the then-White House site's version of that event. Others with the original film clip ensure that piece of history remains intact.

Pressure was put on the TV media to adopt government terminology for the reporting of the war in Iraq and upon businesses who held information. A step further, revising what is written, would effectively create Orwell's Ministry of Truth.

Cause-and-effect thinking is essential to promoting good use of technologies, at the same time prohibiting misuse... in business planning, passing of regulations, and at the time of legal settlements. Technology solutions should be assessed using a disciplined, transparent integration of multiple constituencies' rights, responsibilities, desires and concerns. Finding common ground for business, public, and government interests. Seeking to balance viewpoints, honoring values and rights.

Profits as a factor in determining access to on-line writings is an important issue. Integrity of those writings as authored is a still more important issue. Plato stated that "Those who tell the stories rule society." A balance is fundamental for all voices to be able to speak--one of our most precious rights. Monopolies are the antithesis of balance.

Bill of Rights, National Archives of the United States of America
Comments

The cost of being different in a green world

In general, we seem more conscious today of environmental ramifications of our decisions. Yet, we may find moments when novelty takes not only our breath away, but sometimes our good sense as well.

The new LCD advertisements beginning to appear in printed magazines are an example. It seems that the novelty of technology took precedence over many other aspects of the decision. Touted to have a 40 hour battery, each LCD advertisement is designed to be recharged. How many of us look at an advertisement for hours? Why would we wish to recharge an advertisement to view it for more than the initial 40 hours?

Did the decision to use these LCDs for advertising include an analysis of end-user behavior at the end of life of the product? Studies are currently being conducted on recycling LCDs, but it does not appear that all the waste from them is currently recyclable.

What will happen to all these tiny magazine LCDs when the magazines no longer can be disposed of along with regular paper recycling (a behavior itself that took time to be adopted)? Will the magazines be pitched into recyclable papers regardless of this introduced toxicity? Will they wind up in landfill-destined trash? Did the decision-makers believe people would make the effort to remove the LCD advertisements from their magazines for separate special recycling?

If the purpose of this decision to utilize the LCD advertisement was "to differentiate in order to boost sales," the decision-makers seemed to have passed over some other important criteria and risks surrounding the decision. Novelty is but one criterion. Being environmentally responsible probably should have been another. Risks associated with novelty that were overlooked included the short period it would exist as a competitive advantage before being copied, and the effect of putting additional "work" onto the consumer for the disposal of the end-of-life product.

Without having identified a full set of criteria and risks, without understanding the relative importance of all criteria, as well as the relative degree of harmful impact in combination with the probability of risks, the greater danger is that one's purpose may never be achieved.

Curiosity about these LCD advertisements may cause a brief boost to sales. However, the "work" of disposal may offset that novelty shortly thereafter. After all, if the competition to printed magazines is the internet, well, clicking a window shut on the internet doesn't require much work in terms of "disposal." Especially when it is an advertisement.
Comments
See Previous Posts...

The quickest, easiest and most robust means to better choices.