Decidedly
Musings on decisions and factors that drive them.
Economic Recession: Chicken or Egg?
Mon, Dec 14 2009 12:01
Which came first, global warming or the tsunami?
Thomas Friedman in the New York Times writes of the "two tsunamis" that have hit the U.S. economy: The Great Recession and what he terms "the Great Inflection." His article confirms the insight of my European economist colleague (whom I have mentioned in previous posts): over the long term, recessions and depressions make a country better, leaner, and more efficient.
This current difficult economic period is definitely "sweeping the past away." The technological advancements are less than a tsunami, however. Changes in technology have been evolving over decades. The rapid pace of technological changes has long since become accepted.
The economic depression, however, is the "tsunamic" catalyst that has turned more persons and businesses (those otherwise not inclined to embrace technology) to now grasp technology as if it were a life ring. Software and the internet have entered our world in a parallel to the mechanization of the industrial age. Many facets of doing business (labor, travel, hotel stays, car rentals, paper, pencils, bricks and mortar, etc.) are simply better done (or done without) using fairly mainstream technology at this point. There will be no turning back.
We are experiencing a final "clearing of the landscape." Rather than seeking to rebuild an old order, rather than clinging to the past, we must now move forward developing different ways to thrive in this brave new world.
When a frame of reference changes, actions we choose to pursue obviously will differ. Once a structure in which we must decide is confirmed, as is this new post-tsunami world, then we can move ahead with some confidence in our chosen actions. Instead of using the phrase "creation of jobs" with an emphasis on "jobs" (in which the vision of those jobs is based on the past), we need to shift emphasis to that of "creation." The types of work that will exist in the future have been redefined. The structure for jobs may not even be corporate. We may, in fact, have redefined the entire structure of business.
Thomas Friedman in the New York Times writes of the "two tsunamis" that have hit the U.S. economy: The Great Recession and what he terms "the Great Inflection." His article confirms the insight of my European economist colleague (whom I have mentioned in previous posts): over the long term, recessions and depressions make a country better, leaner, and more efficient.
This current difficult economic period is definitely "sweeping the past away." The technological advancements are less than a tsunami, however. Changes in technology have been evolving over decades. The rapid pace of technological changes has long since become accepted.The economic depression, however, is the "tsunamic" catalyst that has turned more persons and businesses (those otherwise not inclined to embrace technology) to now grasp technology as if it were a life ring. Software and the internet have entered our world in a parallel to the mechanization of the industrial age. Many facets of doing business (labor, travel, hotel stays, car rentals, paper, pencils, bricks and mortar, etc.) are simply better done (or done without) using fairly mainstream technology at this point. There will be no turning back.
We are experiencing a final "clearing of the landscape." Rather than seeking to rebuild an old order, rather than clinging to the past, we must now move forward developing different ways to thrive in this brave new world.
When a frame of reference changes, actions we choose to pursue obviously will differ. Once a structure in which we must decide is confirmed, as is this new post-tsunami world, then we can move ahead with some confidence in our chosen actions. Instead of using the phrase "creation of jobs" with an emphasis on "jobs" (in which the vision of those jobs is based on the past), we need to shift emphasis to that of "creation." The types of work that will exist in the future have been redefined. The structure for jobs may not even be corporate. We may, in fact, have redefined the entire structure of business.
Comments
Business Greeting Cards: When they backfire
Fri, Dec 11 2009 12:01
Juxtaposition causing irony, or reversal of intention
There are a number of businesses or services that most of us would just rather avoid. Doctor, emergency plumber, auto body repair are a few examples. But we recognize the necessity of these businesses in our lives. We are grateful to those persons who have skills as well as kindness during terrible times. We think of these individuals with gratitude, from time to time, but this is typically not a seasonally-oriented fondness.
I just came back from my mailbox. Imagine getting a business Christmas card from the funeral service that handled the death of a family member that occurred in February? Did I really need to be reminded that someone who was here last Christmas, isn't here this Christmas? Of course, the card didn't literally say this. It contained the usual cheery and politically correct non-denominational "Seasons Greetings." It was signed by everyone at the funeral business (some probably hadn't even met me). Those who I did meet earlier in the year were good, kind people. I'm sure the intentions may have been good, but the effect ambushed me with sadness.
Some companies rule out sending business "holiday" cards due to costs. (But the industry persists. Just google it.) Businesses need to consider not only costs in terms of money, but the costs in terms of the reversal of intention.
There are a number of businesses or services that most of us would just rather avoid. Doctor, emergency plumber, auto body repair are a few examples. But we recognize the necessity of these businesses in our lives. We are grateful to those persons who have skills as well as kindness during terrible times. We think of these individuals with gratitude, from time to time, but this is typically not a seasonally-oriented fondness.
I just came back from my mailbox. Imagine getting a business Christmas card from the funeral service that handled the death of a family member that occurred in February? Did I really need to be reminded that someone who was here last Christmas, isn't here this Christmas? Of course, the card didn't literally say this. It contained the usual cheery and politically correct non-denominational "Seasons Greetings." It was signed by everyone at the funeral business (some probably hadn't even met me). Those who I did meet earlier in the year were good, kind people. I'm sure the intentions may have been good, but the effect ambushed me with sadness.
Some companies rule out sending business "holiday" cards due to costs. (But the industry persists. Just google it.) Businesses need to consider not only costs in terms of money, but the costs in terms of the reversal of intention.
More from the health care reform front...
Fri, Nov 6 2009 12:01
Good intentions, but serious consequences
In my continued perusal of the 1,990-page House health care bill, I have come upon an interesting exception to the mandatory purchase of insurance. It will become a rather nice loophole, or at least a good alternative if one cannot face the proposed $5,000 medical insurance "cost sharing" (after unspecified premiums, but including a $1,500 deductible) each year for individuals, and if one does not wish to pay the proposed 2.5% of adjusted gross income penalty for not having insurance.
"(5) RELIGIOUS CONSCIENCE EXEMPTION.—
(A) IN GENERAL.—Subsection (a) shall not apply to any individual (and any qualifying child residing with such individual) for any period if such individual has in effect an exemption which certifies that such individual is a member of a recognized religious sect or division thereof described in section 1402(g)(1) and an adherent of established tenets or teachings of such sect or division as described in such section."
Cause-and-effect thinking is critical while making decisions. Simply asking "If we resolve this issue in this manner, what might happen?" It is hard to imagine such a test having been made before the above clause was made a part of the Bill.
What will happen when people "find" religion, and then later "lose" it at the time their health becomes critically endangered?
Is the government overstepping its scope by declaring which religions in the U.S. are considered "valid" religions? How would that designated list of "acceptable religions" sit with those who believe choice of faith and belief systems are the individual right of citizens in this country and do not necessarily require belonging to an "established" religion?
From a slightly different angle, there are other questions that arise:
If persons of any faith are still required to contribute to the public school system, even if they send their children to their own faith's system of schools, why should persons be exempt from a mandatory payment into a health system based on their religious belief? One can understand rejecting all forms of health care offered to one on religious grounds. However, just as one might refuse a public education, it would seem that the obligation to pay for the country's health system, as with education, should not be waived.
Cans of worms are being opened with some of the exemptions that are being included in this Bill, because while overly detailed focus has been put on some areas, the potential follow on effects in others have not been carefully anticipated.
In my continued perusal of the 1,990-page House health care bill, I have come upon an interesting exception to the mandatory purchase of insurance. It will become a rather nice loophole, or at least a good alternative if one cannot face the proposed $5,000 medical insurance "cost sharing" (after unspecified premiums, but including a $1,500 deductible) each year for individuals, and if one does not wish to pay the proposed 2.5% of adjusted gross income penalty for not having insurance. "(5) RELIGIOUS CONSCIENCE EXEMPTION.—
(A) IN GENERAL.—Subsection (a) shall not apply to any individual (and any qualifying child residing with such individual) for any period if such individual has in effect an exemption which certifies that such individual is a member of a recognized religious sect or division thereof described in section 1402(g)(1) and an adherent of established tenets or teachings of such sect or division as described in such section."
Cause-and-effect thinking is critical while making decisions. Simply asking "If we resolve this issue in this manner, what might happen?" It is hard to imagine such a test having been made before the above clause was made a part of the Bill.
What will happen when people "find" religion, and then later "lose" it at the time their health becomes critically endangered?
Is the government overstepping its scope by declaring which religions in the U.S. are considered "valid" religions? How would that designated list of "acceptable religions" sit with those who believe choice of faith and belief systems are the individual right of citizens in this country and do not necessarily require belonging to an "established" religion?
From a slightly different angle, there are other questions that arise:
If persons of any faith are still required to contribute to the public school system, even if they send their children to their own faith's system of schools, why should persons be exempt from a mandatory payment into a health system based on their religious belief? One can understand rejecting all forms of health care offered to one on religious grounds. However, just as one might refuse a public education, it would seem that the obligation to pay for the country's health system, as with education, should not be waived.
Cans of worms are being opened with some of the exemptions that are being included in this Bill, because while overly detailed focus has been put on some areas, the potential follow on effects in others have not been carefully anticipated.
Comments (1)
Robo candidate
Fri, Oct 30 2009 12:01
Thank you for not calling.
A quiet evening. One is settling into a good book. Maybe even trying to watch the news or a film. The phone rings. As a registrant of the National Do Not Call Registry, and but a few days out from an election, one is pretty much assured that this interruption will be a political "robocall."
One wonders if the candidate's campaign strategist has even thought through the ramifications of this method of "solicitation of votes." If a constituent registers for the National Do Not Call Registry, does the candidate's strategist think that receiving a phone call (even if legal) is going to thrill this constituent? Do they think that the fact that the "voice" on the other end of the phone is a robot is going to delight that person even more?
The irritation of these calls surpasses that of pop up messages on the internet blocking what one is reading. Are these candidates actually so deluded to think that they can irritate a vote out of someone? And a vote in their favor?
Legislation has been introduced to "outlaw" this type of campaigning. I imagine there are many who are asking "Why wait for legislation? Vote for the candidate who does not call." Surely, if one could simply anticipate this reaction, a smart candidate will discontinue this annoying mechanism of "communication."
A quiet evening. One is settling into a good book. Maybe even trying to watch the news or a film. The phone rings. As a registrant of the National Do Not Call Registry, and but a few days out from an election, one is pretty much assured that this interruption will be a political "robocall." One wonders if the candidate's campaign strategist has even thought through the ramifications of this method of "solicitation of votes." If a constituent registers for the National Do Not Call Registry, does the candidate's strategist think that receiving a phone call (even if legal) is going to thrill this constituent? Do they think that the fact that the "voice" on the other end of the phone is a robot is going to delight that person even more?
The irritation of these calls surpasses that of pop up messages on the internet blocking what one is reading. Are these candidates actually so deluded to think that they can irritate a vote out of someone? And a vote in their favor?
Legislation has been introduced to "outlaw" this type of campaigning. I imagine there are many who are asking "Why wait for legislation? Vote for the candidate who does not call." Surely, if one could simply anticipate this reaction, a smart candidate will discontinue this annoying mechanism of "communication."
Pope in Prague
Mon, Sep 28 2009 12:01

Signing on for Faith, or Religion
The Pope recently visited Prague. It is interesting that, as reported on the BBC, the Catholic Church supposes that the main reason for the loss of followers in the Czech Republic is the prior reign of Communism.
This, of course, would not explain why there has been a decrease in followers worldwide, and a significant decrease in the United States. Nor why a spider made the New York Times' reporting of his visit more interesting than the message he delivered, itself.
A basic difference in how people view religion vs. faith has already been noted in the U.S., where there is a growing trend of people to indicate having a form of faith they refer to as "spirituality." Quite a few persons profess a strong belief in God, but an objection to the many religions who have overlaid basic faith and belief in God with a set of rules not found in the Bible or other mainstream religions' foundational books. Each religion's rules, written by humans with all their fallibilities, seem to distort for a purpose that on examination appears more earthly than divine.
Even more so, many religions, beyond their own rules, appear to have become politicized. The "platforms" of religions, and the belligerent attitude of "my God is better than your God" do nothing to further the faith of those who truly believe in a God. [Overfocusing on Christmas the Commercial Venture, with sales starting in July, and stores stocking Christmas ribbons and paper smack alongside the Back to School specials, has not helped keep one's focus on faith, either.]
It would be an interesting exercise, on one hand, to ask people what is important to them in terms of a "religion". For some I know, the sense of community and belonging is one important aspect. For others it is the disciplined time set aside to open one's heart and connect with the divine. On the other hand, it would be interesting to see how people described "faith" and why it was important to them. I'd, of course, suggest weighting each set to determine their relative importance. In reviewing the differences, it might explain a lot about where religion and faith have diverged.
[Added October 10, 2009: In response to the above, someone sent me in hardcopy PARADE magazine from October 4 on the topic of America and the dichotomy between spirituality and religion. Worth a look.]
[Added October 10, 2009: In response to the above, someone sent me in hardcopy PARADE magazine from October 4 on the topic of America and the dichotomy between spirituality and religion. Worth a look.]
Comments (2)
The value of "attending" or "graduating" from high school
Wed, Sep 23 2009 12:01

Seattle Public Schools announced the intention to reduce standards required for graduation from the city's public high schools.
A few questions come to mind:
- If a subject only requires a "D" to enable the recipient to be considered fit to enter and function in the outside world, one wonders, is the subject even worth teaching?
- If the subject is deemed worth teaching, shouldn't one demonstrate better understanding and capability in it than a "D" would indicate?
- If there are a set of courses that are unnecessary to prepare one for "a job" in the outside world, and another set that are deemed essential to prepare one to enter a higher institution of learning (and for which a "D" would be insufficient demonstration of knowledge), should there not be a clear delineation between the two "systems" and the standards required to graduate from each? Should not a diploma indicate from which system the student has graduated? (In earlier times, a "vocational" and a "college prep" track, selectable by students, were available.)
- While it might be appealing to students to be allowed to graduate with a D average, one must consider a future employer's perspective: what is the appeal of such a student, especially compared with a student who received a higher grade average?
The change in standards is a case of taking the concept of "no child left behind" completely at face value. Instead of this program being interpreted as providing opportunity for learning to all, the focus has shifted to revising a system to allow passing all, regardless of how they have utilized the opportunity they were given to learn.
Asked on TV to explain the rationale behind this potential revision of standards, one person had the audacity to say "Having a high school diploma helps a person get a job." Not for long, if that diploma means nothing. Reducing standards for graduation from high school, converts the meaning of "graduation" to "having attended." It no longer signals readiness for the next level of academic learning, or even for entering the workforce. While trying to help those at the low end of the bell curve, the move adversely affects the perceived merit of those at the top end.
Additionally, this move has not given due consideration to potential employers' perspectives. Companies rely on sources for quality "resources." Providing on-the-job training for an applicant is a cost that they would like to avoid. Extra steps in determining variations behind the face value of a diploma ("certification" of competence) costs money. As the value of "graduation" from a certain "workforce source" becomes obscured, the use of that source for hiring will drop.
A cause-and-effect analysis for these types of decisions should clearly be done. Let us hope that those voting on this issue on October 7th, think this through and do so. Wouldn't it be comforting to believe that those making this decision had better than a C average when they graduated?
Suit for a Hobbit
Fri, Sep 11 2009 12:01

With morality laid out so clearly in the Tolkien Ring books (the pitfalls of greed and the lust for power, represented by a Ring), the lawsuit over the outrageous profits from the Ring movies is steeped in irony.
Things may not have seemed so heinous on the part of the filmmakers, if those seeking a share in the profits of those blockbuster films were anything but a charity. It does make one wonder what the defendant, New Line Cinema, thought might be the result if they thrashed a case all the way through court, even IF they had succeeding in retaining rights to all profits.
One is wise to evaluate the potential consequences of actions, including legal actions. New Line Cinema might have been better off if it had considered the ramifications of not only their original action (retaining all profits), but the effects of fighting a case all the way to the end as well, if challenged.
For anyone, identifying and weighing the impacts of risks should they occur, is a valuable exercise. In this Hobbit case, most of the risk seems centered on public perception. It is the public who make films successful or not. While legal courts may make final decisions and settlements, it is the court of public opinion that can have far greater impact on a company's future. However, other risks also underly potential actions.
Imagine if New Line Cinema had considered the following risks in terms of potential impact:
- Getting an immediate public black eye.
- Damaging long-term image (could occur through extended litigation playing on the image of Goliath against a "purer" plaintiff--a charity).
- Jeopardizing future film making (expense of litigation as well as public opinion).
- Diversion of resources from the business of making new films.
- Damaging relationships/reputation with others in the industry.
Each bad enough. Some worse than others. If thought through and sorted out, far less potential for damage.
Think of what might have been gained, if New Line Cinema took the initiative at the time the films were made, and announced profit-sharing with the charity, thereby reinforcing an image of "doing good works"...albeit indirectly. A penny given, a more positive image earned.
It pays to hypothesize, determine potential relative harm, and probability of occurrence before taking critical actions.
Safety in numbers
Sat, Apr 29 2000 04:00

A 2008 legal settlement gave Google the rights to create a Book Rights Registry, and to digitize works whose rights-holders are unknown (50-70% of books published since 1923). Amazon, Microsoft and Yahoo recently countered by joining the Open Book Alliance led by the Internet Archive . The three companies' objections have largely centered on potential lost profits and market share. The non-profit Internet Archive speaks more about open public access and free availability.
An additional concern exists. Software applications (such as Photoshop) not only have provided us with enormous ease to achieve "perfection," but they have engendered in us an acceptance for alterations. Private, personal and innocuous manipulation.
Alteration, however, has gone public. The love handles of a French President disappear, a magazine changes the swimsuit color of a U.S. President . It still seems innocent enough.
Less innocuously, the Bush adminstration cut the embarrassing "Mission Accomplished" banner from the video of that speech for the then-White House site's version of that event. Others with the original film clip ensure that piece of history remains intact.
Pressure was put on the TV media to adopt government terminology for the reporting of the war in Iraq and upon businesses who held information. A step further, revising what is written, would effectively create Orwell's Ministry of Truth.
Cause-and-effect thinking is essential to promoting good use of technologies, at the same time prohibiting misuse... in business planning, passing of regulations, and at the time of legal settlements. Technology solutions should be assessed using a disciplined, transparent integration of multiple constituencies' rights, responsibilities, desires and concerns. Finding common ground for business, public, and government interests. Seeking to balance viewpoints, honoring values and rights.
Profits as a factor in determining access to on-line writings is an important issue. Integrity of those writings as authored is a still more important issue. Plato stated that "Those who tell the stories rule society." A balance is fundamental for all voices to be able to speak--one of our most precious rights. Monopolies are the antithesis of balance.
Bill of Rights, National Archives of the United States of America
The path to Hell...
Sat, Apr 29 2000 04:00

Different choices. Better judgment. “Had I known…I would have…” These are the words too often heard after a poor decision has been made, such as the recent Air Force One fly-by in the vicinity of Ground Zero.
This embarrassing and pricey publicity disaster, followed by fury and resignations, underlines the need, not just for planning the details of how to make something happen (e.g., obtaining fuel, permits, filing flight plan, providing notification), but the need to do what is so often neglected, i.e. cause-and-effect thinking.
Task-oriented and problem solving teams often end their planning when they reach the point in which the problem is “solved” or the task itself is completed. Often forgotten is the need to ask the question “And if we solved this problem (or took this action) in this way, what will then happen?” Good planning contains such a final test question.
Clarifying the purpose for the flight, at a conceptual level, and keeping that purpose front and center during the planning, would also have lessened the chance of mishap. It must be noted that “Getting shots of Air Force One near an American landmark” is not a purpose. It is a description of the project. The purpose, the intention, of getting a shot near an American landmark might have been better stated as “to inspire.”
A purpose statement, expressing one’s intent, becomes the test bed for the final cause-and-effect question. In the case of the fly-by, if the question “if we perform this action in this way, what then might happen?” had been answered with “Unpleasant, or frightening memories of 9/11 could surface,“ additional steps could have been made a part of the plan so that memories would have been inspirational.
When plans are not tested in terms of cause-and-effect, the cost, beyond that of just the dollars involved, can be severe. What will come to mind, now, when photos of Air Force One in the vicinity of any American landmark are shown?
The need to clarify purpose is clearly the first step in good planning. Its “planning pair” is a cause-and-effect question. Embed any extra steps necessary (as revealed by this question) into your plan so that your intent does not suffer from a potential backfire. Good intentions if coupled with cause-and-effect thinking are then not apt to be the pavers of the path to Hell.
